Promising Monsoon Ahead: IMD Predicts Above-Normal Rainfall for India in 2025

 India is poised to receive above-normal rainfall during the 2025 southwest monsoon season, according to a forecast released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This announcement brings hope for a strong agricultural output and relief for regions that have been grappling with water scarcity.

The IMD estimates that the country will receive 105% of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall, which stands at approximately 87 cm. The monsoon, a critical weather event that spans from June to September, is essential for India's economy, especially the agriculture sector, which remains heavily reliant on seasonal rains.

Agriculture contributes nearly 18% to India’s GDP and supports more than 40% of the population. With 52% of the country’s cultivated land dependent on monsoon rainfall, the forecast is likely to bring optimism to farmers and policymakers alike.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra noted that the current climatic indicators suggest a minimal risk of El Niño development, which typically suppresses monsoon rainfall. Instead, neutral conditions or even La Niña patterns could prevail—both of which are favorable for good rainfall distribution.

However, meteorologists and climate experts have warned that while the total volume of rain is expected to be higher than average, the actual distribution may be erratic. In recent years, India has witnessed a growing trend of short, intense rain spells interspersed with dry periods, leading to challenges such as flash floods and drought-like situations within the same season.

Despite these concerns, the above-normal rainfall prediction is a positive sign for India's food security, rural economy, and water reservoir levels. As preparations begin, the focus will now shift to ensuring adequate infrastructure and disaster management systems to handle the variability of this year’s monsoon.